Reading the Weekly Pulse — How to Use It
The Weekly Pulse is structured exactly like a sell-side research note for a reason: it is a weekly observation, not a forecast. Reading it as a forecast or trading instruction is the most common misuse. This lesson walks through each section in the order it appears and shows you what the section is built to tell you and what it is not.
8.4.1Treat It Like a Research Note, Not an Order Ticket
The Weekly Pulse is an aggregation of what the framework observed over the prior trading week. Its primary value is not in any single number; it is in the shape of the week’s signals taken together. The reader who scans for the headline regime label and the conviction score is missing 80% of the information density. The reader who works through each section in order, asking “is this section telling me the same story as the last section, or a different story?” is using the document the way it was built to be used.
The discipline is to treat the Pulse the way an analyst treats a sell-side research note. The note tells you what the analyst observed, what their model says about it, and what they are watching going forward. The note does not tell you what to do; that is your decision, with your sizing, your account, and your risk tolerance. The Pulse is the same. It is a weekly briefing on what the framework saw; the trade decisions remain yours.
The other thing to do at the top of the Pulse is to anchor against the prior week. The single most useful question to ask while reading is “what changed from last week?” A regime label that is the same with the same conviction score is a steady-state read. A regime label that is the same but with a meaningfully lower conviction score is a regime that is quietly deteriorating. The change vector is more informational than any individual number.
The Pulse is a weekly observation. The observation has no preference about whether you act on it.
8.4.2Aggregate Stats & the Sigma Sanity Check
The first section of the Pulse is the aggregate stats: total flow notional for the week, total dark pool notional, average daily call/put, breadth metrics, and the headline σ readings. The job of this section is to tell you whether the week was numerically unusual or numerically normal. A week with most aggregate σ readings within +/-1 is a normal week; a week with multiple readings beyond +/-2 is a week the framework considers genuinely unusual.
The sanity check is to read down the column of σ readings and ask: do these numbers match my felt sense of the week? If the Pulse says the week was a +2.5σ flow week and your felt sense was that nothing happened, one of you is wrong. Often it is your felt sense; flow weeks accumulate quietly and a 5-day total can be unusual without any single day feeling extraordinary. Sometimes it is the data; check the inputs. The Pulse exists in part to override the bias toward remembering the most dramatic intraday moments.
The aggregate section is also the place to verify regime context. A flow week that is +2σ bullish in a Bull regime is consistent with the regime — informative as confirmation but not as new information. A flow week that is +2σ bullish in a Crisis regime is a divergence: either contrarian positioning or a leading indicator of regime transition. Read the sigma against the regime, not in isolation.
8.4.3Top 15 Options Flow — Look for Concordance
The Top 15 options flow table is the workhorse of the Pulse. The instinct is to read it from top to bottom by notional: the biggest dollar prints, ranked. That is the wrong instinct. The right instinct is to read it for concordance: how many of the top 15 names are clustering in the same sector, the same direction, or the same expiration band? Concordance is the signal; rank by notional alone is just leaderboard.
The questions to ask while reading: are 5+ of the top 15 in mega-cap tech (sector concentration)? Are 8+ in calls vs puts (directional concordance)? Are most of them clustering in the next 30-day expiration band (positioning concordance)? Three concordant signals in the same direction across the top 15 is a meaningful positioning event; one or two without concordance is a notional artifact that may not represent anything beyond a single fund’s rebalance.
The other read in the Top 15 is to look for the repeat names: tickers that appeared in last week’s top 15 and are appearing again. Persistent flow is much more meaningful than single-week notional spikes. A name that has been in the top 15 for three consecutive weeks is being accumulated; a name that appears once and disappears is more likely a single-event print. The framework does not give the persistence ranking explicitly; reading the document weekly is what surfaces it.
| What to Look For | Why It Matters |
|---|---|
| Sector clustering in top 15 | indicates rotation theme is concentrated |
| Directional concordance (calls vs puts) | reveals positioning lean across names |
| Expiration band clustering | indicates time-horizon of conviction |
| Repeat names from prior weeks | distinguishes accumulation from event prints |
| OI vs size ratio | flags new positions vs roll trades |
8.4.4Top 15 Dark Pool — Focus on Persistence
The Top 15 dark pool table reads differently from options flow. Dark pool prints reflect institutional accumulation or distribution that is being deliberately hidden from the lit tape. Single-day dark pool spikes are common and often meaningless — they can be index rebalances, ETF creations, or end-of-day prints that have no information beyond the mechanics. The signal is in persistence: dark pool flow that builds over multiple days in the same name.
The discipline while reading the dark pool table is to mentally subtract single-day spikes and look for names that are showing dark pool above their 90-day baseline for three or more days in the week. Those are accumulation candidates. Names that show one massive print and otherwise nothing are usually mechanical. The Pulse table cannot easily display persistence directly, so the reader does that arithmetic by remembering or by checking last week’s table for repeat names.
The other dark pool read is the direction column. Dark pool prints can be tagged as accumulation (buying pressure) or distribution (selling pressure) using time-and-sales context around the print. Persistent accumulation in a name is a meaningfully different signal from persistent distribution. The framework provides this tag where it can be inferred reliably; where it cannot, the print is shown as neutral and the reader treats it as informational only.
8.4.5Sector Heatmap — Rotation Early Warning
The sector heatmap shows the week’s relative performance across the eleven S&P sectors as a color-coded grid. The naive read is to look at the green cells and conclude “tech outperformed.” The richer read is to look at the shape of the heatmap relative to the regime. Bull regimes typically show concentrated outperformance in tech and consumer discretionary; Crisis regimes show concentrated outperformance in utilities, staples, and healthcare. A heatmap whose green cells do not match the regime is the early warning of rotation.
The clearest rotation signals are concentrated dark green in defensives during what the framework calls a Bull regime, or concentrated dark green in cyclicals during what the framework calls a Crisis regime. Either pattern is the sector tape voting against the regime call, and the framework’s experience is that the sector tape leads the regime call by 5 to 15 trading days at transitions. Reading the heatmap in this way is the cheapest leading indicator the document provides.
The supplementary read is to look at which sectors have been red for multiple consecutive weeks. Persistent sector underperformance is a flag for either secular weakness or a regime that has not yet shown up in the headline. A sector that has been red for three weeks while the regime is Bull is a sector to investigate; either the regime is incomplete in capturing what is happening, or the sector has a specific story that is independent of the regime.
8.4.6Conviction Score — Use the 1–10 Scale
The Conviction Score (1–10) is the framework’s aggregate read of how unified its inputs are this week. A score of 9 or 10 means flow, dark pool, sector, regime, and macro signals are all pointing in the same direction with high σ readings. A score of 5 or 6 means signals are mixed but legible. A score of 2 or 3 means the framework’s inputs are contradictory and no clear read emerges.
The discipline for reading the conviction score is to use it as a sizing scalar, not as a go/no-go switch. A 9 conviction read in a setup matching the framework’s bias is a candidate for full sizing within whatever regime tier applies. A 6 conviction read on the same setup is a candidate for half sizing within the same tier. A 3 conviction read is the framework explicitly saying “I do not have a strong view this week” — sizing into ambiguity is paying spread without an edge.
The conviction score is also a diagnostic. A score that has been 8–9 for three consecutive weeks is a steady high-conviction regime; a score that just dropped from 8 to 5 in one week is the framework registering a meaningful change in input agreement. The week-over-week delta in conviction is a readable signal in its own right.
| Conviction | Read | Sizing Scalar |
|---|---|---|
| 9–10 | all inputs aligned, high σ | full within regime tier |
| 7–8 | mostly aligned, one dissent | 3/4 within regime tier |
| 5–6 | mixed but legible | 1/2 within regime tier |
| 3–4 | weak signal, contradictions | 1/4 within regime tier |
| 1–2 | no read; do not initiate | existing positions only |
8.4.7Signals to Monitor — Conditional Watch List
The final section of every Pulse is the Signals to Monitor list. These are conditional watch items, not forecasts. A typical entry reads “if SPY breaks below the 50DMA on a closing basis, watch for breadth deterioration to confirm.” The structure is always conditional: if X happens, then watch for Y. Reading the conditional as a forecast that X will happen is the most common misuse.
The discipline is to treat each watch item as a trigger you have pre-loaded in your attention. When the conditional fires, you look at the named follow-on signal and act if the follow-on confirms. When the conditional does not fire, the entry simply remained inactive for the week and is updated next Pulse. The watch list is a way to delegate part of your attention to the framework so you do not have to monitor everything; you monitor only the conditions the framework flagged as worth watching.
The other point is that the watch list is not exhaustive. The framework lists 5 to 10 conditional signals per week; the actual market has hundreds of potential triggers. Treat the watch list as the framework’s prioritized subset, not as the full universe. If something happens that is not on the watch list, you still have to react to it; the watch list does not absolve attention elsewhere.
8.4.8Common Mistakes
- Reading only the headline regime and conviction score. 80% of the document’s value is in the section-by-section detail.
- Treating the Pulse as a forecast or trading instruction. It is a weekly observation; trade decisions are yours.
- Ranking the Top 15 by notional alone. Concordance and persistence carry the signal.
- Reading dark pool single-day spikes as signals. Persistence over 3+ days is the actual read.
- Ignoring the sector heatmap when it disagrees with the regime. That disagreement is the leading indicator.
- Treating Signals to Monitor as forecasts. They are conditional watch items, not predictions.
- Not reading week-over-week. The change vector is often more informational than any single week’s snapshot.
Key Takeaways
- The Weekly Pulse is structured like a research note. Read it section by section, not headline only.
- Aggregate sigma readings tell you if the week was numerically unusual; cross-check against your felt sense.
- Top 15 flow is read for concordance and persistence, not for raw notional ranking.
- Dark pool persistence over multiple days separates accumulation from mechanical prints.
- The sector heatmap is the cheapest leading indicator of rotation when it dissents from the regime.
- Conviction score is a sizing scalar within the regime tier, not a go/no-go switch.
- Signals to Monitor are conditional watch items. The “if” matters as much as the “watch for.”